The Burnt Orange report today has a lengthy, if authoritative, analysis on why House Speaker "Tom Craddick is John McCain at this point."

"Barring a miracle, the math is absolutely there for change," the post begins.

In his write-up, Phillip Martin discusses how he studied news stories on all 150 members of the Texas House, looked at last year's Speaker's vote and reviewed election results from 2008.  Here's his conclusion:

I do wonder if Martin is putting too much stock in  what Republican House members have said about Craddick in the past--which could make the 74 number a little lower-- but that is at best a minor quibble. In any case, don't let our summary of his be a substitute for checking it yourself. For anyone who has been following the behind-the-scenes race for speaker, this is required reading. Once again, here's the link.