UPDATE: Dems look strong in Harris, Dallas counties — are statewide victories next?

By Matt Pulle | Wednesday, November 5th, 2008

In a triumph that could seal the fate of the GOP in Dallas, while giving a major boast to statewide Democratic candidates, beleaguered sheriff Lupe Valdez scored a decisive victory over Republican challenger Lowell Cannaday Tuesday night.

Valdez’s win was one of several for Democrats throughout Texas — as the once-marginalized party solidified its hold on Dallas while seizing nearly every contested race in Harris County.

The sheriff’s race — which, despite high expectations, turned into a dull, doddering affair — was seen as a bellwether of sorts: If the Republicans couldn’t beat a much-ridiculed incumbent whose jail failed five straight jail inspections (four on her watch), who personally flunked a mandatory law enforcement exam and whose own officers backed her opponent, well then, how could they ever hope to beat someone competent?

Texas Democratic Party spokesperson Hector Nieto made a tacit acknowledgment of her struggles, even as he celebrated her victory.

“It’s clear that Dallas County residents are happy with the leadership that they have in Sheriff Valdez,” he tells Texas Watchdog. “She was given a broken sheriff’s department and, for the past four years, she’s done everything she could to correct it. And while there’s still a lot of work to be done, it’s clear that voters want her to continue the work she started.”

Well, there’s that. Or there’s the simple fact that Barack Obama scored a stifling victory over John McCain in Dallas County a mere four years after George W. Bush and John Kerry battled here to a virtual draw. With Democrats voting straight-ticket over Republicans by a wide margin, Cannaday, a former Irving police chief who made a good case for why Valdez failed at her job, didn’t stand a chance. This was never about the issues.

The sheriff’s victory virtually guarantees a second term to Dallas County District Attorney Craig Watkins. Despite a few stumbles here and there, Watkins has become a folk here locally and across the country for freeing up to 20 inmates who had been unjustly imprisoned by his indiscreet predecessors. He’s now untouchable. As far as Democratic Dallas County Judge Jim Foster, who’s openly mocked by his own party, he probably won’t make it to a general election. Already well-regarded Democrats like former airline executive Sam Coats are angling for his job and if one of them defeats him in a primary, they can likely thwart any Republican challenger.

Democrats have now cemented their hold on Dallas. Just look at long-time Republican state Rep Tony Goolsby, who lost decisively to Richardson school board member Carol Kent. Two years ago, the incumbent, whose North Dallas district was once a Republican stronghold, looked like he survived the Democratic tidal wave, eking out a tight win against attorney Harriet Miller amid charges that he stifled minority votes. Now the 10-term incumbent is out of office. For that, he has only has himself to blame. Goolsby refused to debate his opponent, an incredibly arrogant stance for a vulnerable lawmaker. In Texas politics, pride goeth before an upset.

With Goolsby’s defeat, Dems are running hog wild in Dallas. Grand Prairie state Rep. Kirk England, who switched from the GOP to the Democrats in 2007, also held on to his seat, despite being targeted by angry Republicans. As it turns out, there’s not much the GOP could do at all in Dallas County. And now with Democrats making epic gains in Houston and even in Fort Worth, is it only a matter of time before they start winning statewide?

“Let’s see what happens in Harris County and South Texas,” says East Dallas state Rep. Allen Vaught, who sweated out a small victory over Bill Keffer, the man he toppled in 2006. “The Democrats have to put forward a moderate Democratic candidate, someone who can win over Republican votes. But, yeah, I think it’s right around the corner … Texas becoming a blue state.”

For now, that still looks a ways off. Just ask Barack Obama, who lost in double digits here, even while pulling off victories in reliably red states. But in the U.S. Senate race, Democratic challenger Rick Noriega, a five-term state representative from Houston, ran a surprisingly strong campaign against Republican incumbent John Cornyn. Although he entered the contest with low name recognition — state House members aren’t exactly rock stars — Noriega orchestrated an aggressive, and traditionally Democratic challenge that went right after Cornyn. For his efforts, Noriega was a hero of sorts in the liberal blogosphere, particularly at the wildly-read dailykos.com.

Even while falling short, his contest provides a blueprint for future Democratic candidates running statewide: Run as a moderate Democrat, but as a Democrat; raise as much money as possible; and link the Republican to the worst excesses of his party.

In other races of note, Mike Jackson, the Republican state Senator for the District 11 seat covering the bay area, defeated Joe Jaworski, a former mayor pro tem of Galveston. It was a chaotic, frenzied election season for Jaworski, whose Galveston home was flooded by Hurricane Ike. Although he ran a focused campaign, racking up the endorsement of The Houston Chronicle as well as several labor unions, the incumbent pulled out a decisive victory.

Why did he escape the Democratic onslaught?

“The first thing you have to understand about Galveston County, it’s a real blue-collar area,” says Onzelo Markum, a Republican political consultant. “For years and years Texas was a real Democratic state, but there is a real working-class ethic here that Mike Jackson appeals to. He calls himself a hard-hat Republican, and he really appeals to some of the workers in the petrochemical industry here.”

In Tarrant County, in arguably the nastiest contest in the state, former Fort Worth City Councilmember Wendy Davis upset long-time Republican state Sen. Kim Brimer. (The Star-Telegram reports that she is the victor, but as of Wednesday morning, Brimer had yet to concede.) On the surface, Davis’ triumph, coming at the tiniest of margins, was arguably the sharpest surprise of the night of the night, but the cigar-chomping Brimer blew this campaign by, well, not really running one. His high-dollar political consultant, Bryan Eppstein, clearly didn’t serve him well.

Looking as if he simply didn’t want to be bothered by having to run at all, the prickly Brimer dropped out of debates without explanation — and didn’t even have a functional campaign Web site until a few weeks ago. He also filed a series of lawsuits challenging Davis’ eligibility, claiming she had not resigned from her council seat in time to mount a campaign for higher office. Even after seperate courts dismissed his claim, Brimer pressed on with his argument when he would have been better served by arguing for his re-election.

Davis meanwhile ran a textbook campaign that Democratic challengers all across the state should study as if it were a third testament of the Bible. A young, attractive Harvard law grad, Davis blistered the white-haired good ole boy on the campaign trail and on her TV spots, calling him “unethical” after a series of stories illustrated his reckless use of campaign funds. She also brought attention to a series of bad debts that he was slow to pay back in the 1990s. Davis did all of this even while never straying from traditional Democratic platforms, including increased regulations on businesses and polluters.

If Davis won her campaign off hard work, Houston state Rep. Hubert Vo won by simply belonging to the right party. The Democratic incumbent pummeled Republican challenger Greg Meyers even as the Houston Chronicle wrote a series of stories depicting Vo as a slumlord. Meyers made Vo’s rickety and dangerous apartment complexes a campaign issue, but that never seemed to stick. That’s how life is for big-city Democrats in Texas these days: Whether you run a great campaign or just ride the coattails of one, you now belong to the dominant party. Get used to it.